Ohio State opens as seventeen point favorites at Indiana

On October 10, 2012 by Grant Edgell

 

via Marvin Fong | Plain Dealer

After scoring nine touchdowns last Saturday night in a convincing 63-38 win over the Nebraska Cornhuskers (4-2, 1-1 B1G), the Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0, 2-0 B1G) have opened up as seventeen point favorites going into their second night game in as many weeks to face the Indiana Hoosiers in Bloomington.

After a slow offensive first quarter that saw Ohio State’s lone touchdown come off a Bradley Roby pick-six of Huskers’ quarterback Taylor Martinez, the Buckeyes unleashed a fury of points in the final forty-five minutes of game play to tally 63 total, their highest output of the Urban Meyer era. Ohio State had been favored by only three against then-21st ranked Nebraska, but rattled off scoring drive after scoring drive and squeezed Roby’s touchdown and a Philly Brown punt return for another score in between seven touchdowns from Braxton Miller and the offense.

Saturday night was the second week in a row the Buckeyes covered the spread after winning 17-16 in East Lansing a week prior as three-point underdogs to the Spartans. The pair of victories against the spread came after going an abysmal 1-3 versus the odds in their four non-conference match-ups even though the Bucks now hold onto a 6-0 overall win-loss record.

Ohio State and Nebraska also combined to torch the 58-point over/under posted for Saturday night’s game by most sportsbooks, combining to light up the scoreboard for 101 total points.

WHERE THEY’VE BEEN

Ohio State has now made it through exactly one half of their schedule and remain unscathed at 6-0 heading into Bloomington. After a blowout of Miami (OH) to begin Meyer’s OSU coaching career, the Buckeyes then played three non-conference games a little closer than many thought they might before getting a signature road win in East Lansing ten days ago.

Saturday night’s blowout of Nebraska with the lights shining over the Shoe may have been the turning-point of ‘Phase One’ of the their offensive transition from the slow, methodical approach of Jim Tressel to the sometimes-frantic pace of an Urban Meyer / Tom Herman offense.

Is it a scoring pace they can sustain? That would be the goal, but only time will tell.

Ohio State is 3-3 against the spread (ATS) and 3-3 on the Over/Under (O/U) for 2012.

The Indiana Hoosiers (2-3, 0-2 B1G) haven’t had quite the same success in the box score or the sportsbooks. After back-to-back wins to start the 2012 season, versus Indiana State and Massachusetts, the Hoosiers have dropped three straight at the hands of Ball State, Northwestern and, last weekend, Michigan State.

They’re 2-3 ATS with they’re two wins coming while covering in a close game as big underdogs to the Spartans and whipping UMass as just 13.5-point favorites. The more interesting trend you’ll find on the Hoosiers comes as a bit of a surprise – the Over is now 4-0-0 in Indiana’s four games with an Over/Under posted by the major sportsbooks, and the O/U hasn’t exactly been low in any of the four.

In the four match-ups that had an O/U posted (UMass, Ball State, Northwestern and MSU) the Hoosiers themselves have averaged 35.0 ppg but have given up nearly 30 a game in their last three after holding UMass to just two field goals. The combined average total score of their first five games has been an astounding 75.75 ppg against an average posted O/U of just 55.63.

Even more surprising? It’s not a new trend – the Over is now 8-1 in Indiana’s last nine games played dating back to their 45-24 loss in Iowa City last October.

 

Just stop. You lost by two touchdowns.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

Ohio State is 10-0 against the Hoosiers since Halloween 1998 and have gone 8-2 against the spread versus the Hoosiers over those ten wins. The Over is just 3-5-1 over the last nine with a posted O/U in the series, in large part due to the Buckeyes’ stellar defenses over the past decade-plus.

But this year’s Silver Bullets don’t have the same edge to them, already having given up 123 points through six games (20.5 ppg) including 38 last weekend at home to Nebraska. Combine that with the fact that Indiana’s offense has done their share of scoring this season – and the Bucks’ offense seemingly turning a corner last Saturday night – and this weekend’s game at Memorial Stadium in Bloomington could be a bit of a shootout on the scoreboard.

That said, the Ohio State defense is starting to come around and the Hoosiers are missing starting quarterback Tre Roberson for the season so I just don’t know what the Hoosier offense will be able to contribute towards the Over/Under. One thing is for sure – Meyer and his offense will do their part against the same Indiana defense that yielded 39 to Ball State three weeks ago.

POINT SPREAD  |  Ohio State (-17.0)

OVER/UNDER  |  (+61.0)

TRENDS  |  #8 Ohio State at Indiana

  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Buckeyes are 26-9-1 ATS in their last 36 road games.
  • Buckeyes are 22-8 ATS in their last 30 games in October.
  • Buckeyes are 44-18-1 ATS in their last 63 conference games.
  • Buckeyes are 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games overall.
  • Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Against the Spread (ATS)
  • Hoosiers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Hoosiers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Under is 11-4-2 in Buckeyes last 17 road games.
  • Over is 5-2 in Buckeyes last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 5-2-1 in Buckeyes last 8 games in October.
  • Over is 5-2 in Buckeyes last 7 conference games.
  • Over/Under (O/U)
  • Over is 5-0 in Hoosiers last 5 games in October.
  • Over is 8-1 in Hoosiers last 9 games on field turf.
  • Over is 4-1 in Hoosiers last 5 home games.
  • Over is 15-5-1 in Hoosiers last 21 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 18-7-2 in Hoosiers last 27 conference games.
  • Over is 33-16-2 in Hoosiers last 51 games overall.

PREDICTION

Nearly every trend above is pointing to a high-scoring blowout and so am I. Meyer, Miller and the Ohio State offense found something last Saturday night. I’m not willing to say the light switch has officially been flipped, but the Hoosiers aren’t exactly overachievers on the defensive side of the ball and Saturday night versus Nebraska was a darn good start.

Ohio State covers the spread (-17.0) as road favorites and the Over/Under (+61.0) doesn’t stand a chance. The Buckeyes will nearly cover that on their own and give up a few more to Indiana to give the Over the nod.

Ohio State 59   |   Indiana 24

THE LOUNGE

Each week I post THE MAIN EVENT bet thread in the new Empire Lounge, and this week is no different. The Ohio State at Indiana thread has forty bets available, and I’ve tried to throw a few wrinkles in each week. This week’s prop bet portion includes the following, plus some:

  • 3-1 odds that Ohio State scores a touchdown longer than 52.5 yards
  • 7-1 odds that Ohio State scores a touchdown longer than 69.5 yards
  • 7-2 odds that Carlos Hyde scores three or more touchdowns
  • 5-1 odds that Rod Smith scores a touchdown again this week
  • 9-1 odds that the Buckeyes successfully fake a kick or a punt
  • 9-2 odds that an Ohio State defensive back scores a touchdown
  • 5-2 odds that Johnathan Hankins records a sack

It’s a fun way to take a another level of interest in the game Saturday night, and it’s 100% free. If you do stop into the Lounge and want to participate, all you have to do is register (free, top right corner) and you’re automatically given $500 in uCash to use on the bet threads.

Good luck!

 

 

1 comments
TheEdge
TheEdge

THE Ohio State Buckeyes are 6-0 and will undoubtedly be 8-0 heading into the next scariest game of the year. I thought they might go 11-1 for the year and Sparty was my biggest fear. (since passed) Now I see how State Penn is playing and makes me a little nervous as an away game but I have every faith in URBZ and staff in being more than prepared for every opponent on the schedule. I am relaxing and drinking beer since I don't have 2-a-days or prep work to do. Just read Buckeye Empire and I'm up to date.

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