The Ohio State Buckeyes (7-0, 3-0 B1G) have opened up as nineteen point favorite against the Purdue Boilermakers (3-3, 0-2 B1G) this Saturday in Ohio Stadium. Just a few weeks ago many thought Purdue might challenge Wisconsin for the Leaders Division title, but after early losses to Notre Dame, Michigan and the Badgers they now face an uphill climb when they enter the Horseshoe looking to post their first win since September 29th against Marshall.
Purdue has had Ohio State’s number in recent years, winning two of the last three since 2009, including a 26-18 upset of the Buckeyes in West Lafayette just three years ago. But Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes are on a different type of mission in 2012. There is no Big Ten Championship. There is no bowl game. There are twelve wins. There are zero losses. They’re officially seven for seven. Can they make it eight on Saturday?
As we always do on Wednesdays, let’s take a look at the Vegas odds for Saturday’s match-up as it relates to recent history for the two teams.
WHERE THEY’VE BEEN
The Buckeyes were 17-point favorites in Bloomington last Saturday night before pulling out a 52-49 victory and escaping Memorial Stadium unscathed thanks to the efforts of Carlos Hyde and sophomore quarterback Braxton Miller. While they did move on to 7-0 for the 2012 season, the Bucks fell to a pitiful 3-4 against the spread (ATS) for the season.
The Over/Under (O/U) on Saturday night was a hefty 61.0, which the Buckeyes and Hoosiers made quick work of en route to posting 101 total points in a game that has created a fire storm of opinions on defensive coordinator Luke Fickell after the Silver Bullets gave up 49 points to the Hoosiers. With the Over winning on Saturday it’s now won 4-of-7 on the season in games involving Ohio State, partly due to Meyer’s new fast-paced offense and partly due to the Ohio State D performing below par compared to recent years.
Purdue is 3-3 outright on the young season, and also 3-3 ATS after covering their first three games of the season, but failing to do so in their last three against Marshall, Michigan and Wisconsin. But, from a bettors standpoint, all has not failed with the Boilermakers. They’re ability to score – and tendency to give up a few points – the Over is 4-1 in Purdue games this season and 7-2 in their last nine games played dating back to their 26-23 win over the Buckeyes in 2011.
Ohio State is 6-4 outright against the Boilermakers over their last ten match-ups, but only 3-7 against the spread versus Purdue in the same ten games.
It’s undeniable that Purdue has dogged Ohio State over the past handful of meetings, so it comes as no surprise that the Bucks are pitiful ATS against them. Twice in the last three meetings Purdue came in as the underdog and left the game with a win under their belt. In 2009 the Buckeyes were 12-point favorites and left West Lafayette with their tail between their legs after a 26-18 loss. The same happened last year when the Bucks paid Purdue a visit as 7.5-point favorites and made the trip back home to Columbus having lost by a field goal.
The bright side to this weekend’s match-up being in Ohio Stadium? The last time Purdue entered Columbus they came in as 23-point underdogs and lost by 49 while being shut out by the Silver Bullets defense.
The not so bright side: the Silver Bullet defense has looked more like a pile of silver pellets as of late.
The Over is only 4-6 in the teams’ last ten contests, even though the O/U posted was less than +50.0 every season for the last nine. The Under prevailed every time between 2002 and 2009, mostly because of the Buckeyes’ stingy defense throughout the Jim Tressel era of Ohio State football. But the combination of a struggling OSU defense with a new-look Urban Meyer offense has this weekend’s O/U sitting greater than fifty – set at +62.5 for Saturday afternoon – for the first time since 2000 in the series when they established O/U was at +53.0.
POINT SPREAD | Ohio State (-19.0)
OVER/UNDER | (+62.5)
TRENDS | Purdue at #7 Ohio State
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Boilermakers are 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 games in October.
- Boilermakers are 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games on field turf.
- Boilermakers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Buckeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
- Buckeyes are 44-19-1 ATS in their last 64 conference games.
- Buckeyes are 33-16-1 ATS in their last 50 games overall.
- Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games.
- Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on field turf.
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Over is 4-0 in Boilermakers last 4 games overall.
- Over is 5-1 in Boilermakers last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 5-1 in Boilermakers last 6 conference games.
- Under is 4-1-1 in Boilermakers last 6 road games.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Boilermakers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Under is 25-10-2 in Boilermakers last 37 games in October.
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Over is 4-1 in Buckeyes last 5 games in October.
- Over is 6-2 in Buckeyes last 8 conference games.
- Over is 5-2 in Buckeyes last 7 games on field turf.
My prediction last week failed miserably so I’m out for redemption. Justin Lash from Boiled Sports tells me we’re safe on Saturday and that’s plenty for me, so I’m going all-in on the Buckeyes once again:
The Buckeyes continue their offensive dominance and nearly cover the +62.5 Over/Under on their own at home. The Silver Bullets rebound after mountains of criticism following last Saturday night’s mess in Bloomington and hold Purdue under 24 (damn, the old Silver Bullets would be aiming at a shut-out, now 23-or-less sounds good).
Ohio State 57 | Purdue 23
Each week I post THE MAIN EVENT pick thread in the new Empire Lounge, and this week is no different. The Purdue at #7 Ohio State thread has forty bets available, and I’ve tried to throw a few wrinkles in each week. This week’s prop bet portion includes the following, plus some:
- 5-2 odds that Ohio State scores a touchdown longer than 52.5 yards
- 4-1 odds that Ohio State scores a touchdown longer than 69.5 yards
- 7-2 odds that Carlos Hyde scores three or more touchdowns
- 9-1 odds that the Silver Bullets defense scores a touchdown
- 9-2 odds that freshman Noah Spence records a sack
- 4-1 odds that Miller and Hyde combine for more than 399.5 total yards
It’s a fun way to take a another level of interest in the game Saturday night, and it’s 100% free. If you do stop into the Lounge and want to participate, all you have to do is register (free, top right corner) and you’re automatically given $500 in uCash to use on the bet threads.